Update August 23, 2020

The website was getting cluttered, so we have done a bit of re-organization. See our two new sections: Non-Polling Based Methods and Simulation. We will be adding to the simulation page with results from more websites and our own simulation results.

The Democrats broke new ground in putting their convention on the internet.

It was all properly social distanced, because whether we like it or not, Covid-19 is still very much with us. Their convention ended on August 20 but I think it is all still posted at Democratic Convention. Republicans have their chance beginning on Monday, August 24 and ending August 27.

It is really too early to know the effect of the Democratic Convention. Of course, Biden supporters will tell you it went great, one big unity party, while Trump supporters will likely say that Biden is just peddling failed policies. So, that's politics, and not what this site is about.

There will be a flurry of new polls done in the next few weeks. I'm afraid they may add confusion rather than clarity to the forecasts, because some of the surveys will be done too quickly and show anomalous results. Closely watched polls will be in three states tilting towards Biden - Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, which Trump could flip and three states tilting toward Republican- Ohio, Iowa and Georgia which Biden could flip.

Overall, Biden still maintains his lead. I show practically no change in the average EV of 331 in the last month. The standard deviation dropped in half, reflecting less scatter in the forecasted values. They could be all wrong, but in better agreement. We have the same phenomena when a hurricane comes. Models can agree on the wrong result.

The gambling crowd seems less enthusiastic on Biden with the margin diminishing from 24 points on July 27 to just 14 points at this point. Could Trump close the gap? See the Real Clear Politics website page:

Real Clear Politics - Betting Sites Summary

Polls show Biden is leading. My view is there is a realistic scenario of Trump winning, even if he loses the rust belt states of Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin.

See the second map by Barry Ritholz with Donald Trump winning by 8 points, by winning most of the swing states, except in the rust belt.

Trump Victory

Stay tuned,

David Lord

August 23, 2020